my ghod, I did it: I predicted the election

[calimac]

I'd totally forgotten this, but I've been going through my posts of the last year in preparation for writing a year-end post, and found this: On January 31st, I predicted that, given a straight fight between Trump and Clinton, Trump would be elected President.

Let me repeat that: On January 31st, 2016, I predicted that Trump would be elected President.

Here's the relevant part of what I wrote:

The article's second argument is that "there are simply not enough struggling, resentful, xenophobic white people in the US to constitute a national majority sufficient to win a presidential election." The flaw in that reasoning is that, if Trump wins the nomination, he won't need merely that category. Unless the party splits over him, and I wouldn't count on it doing so, other Republicans will have nowhere else to go. Trump has high negatives, yes, but so does Clinton (if she's the Democratic nominee), and she doesn't have the enthusiasm of her party's base. Enthusiasm is what means turnout, and - as the difference between 2008 and 2010 amply shows - between two strong bases, it's turnout that wins elections. Combine that with the prospect of a sluggish economy, and in a straight fight between Clinton and Trump, it'd be a wonder if Trump didn't win.

Then I wrote, "Never say that a strong candidate can't win," with a link to a collection of quotes from as late as the day before the 2008 election saying that Obama can't, or won't, win.

My argument related to turnout, and I think it's clear that lack of turnout, relative to Trump's, was the massive problem that weighed down Clinton's boat to the extent that relatively minor problems, like the whole e-mail shebang, Russian hackers and James Comey and all, were capable of sinking it.

Comments

[cmcmck.livejournal.com]

So it's all your fault then?

Oh

[lsanderson.livejournal.com]

My!

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

Cassandra always gets blamed, doesn't she?

[cmcmck.livejournal.com]

Woe, woe and thrice woe!

Oh, wait! :o)

[andrewducker]

I'd say congratulations, but...

[marycatelli]

Wow. You're only the second person I've run across who predicted it, and he was doing so closer to the event.

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

Congratulations - some six months ahead of Michael Moore, too! (I'm still living on the warm glow of having predicted that May would become PM the day after the Brexit vote even as I deplore the lived reality, so if you're feeling ambivalent about your prescience, I understand.)

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

"I'm still living on the warm glow of having predicted that May would become PM"

So you did, and you immediately convinced me that she was the least improbable possibility.

"if you're feeling ambivalent about your prescience"

Ya think?