damp squib

[calimac]

The results of the British general election are something of a disappointment for outside observers who like to watch the British living through interesting times. Instead of another tightly hung parliament, the Conservatives actually took a majority, which means no need for the Liberal Democrats, or anyone else, to immolate themselves further on the altar of coalition. (Five years harnessed with the Conservatives has now lost the Lib Dems 85% of their seats; another five years like that and they'd be left with only one seat, probably Orkney and Shetland.)

So, no delicate negotiations, no malignant (from the Tory pov) Scots looming over everything, just another straightforward John Major-style government. And that comparison is probably apt, because the Conservative majority is only 5 seats, possibly 6 if they take the last one still undeclared at the moment (St. Ives, previously a Lib Dem seat: probably waiting for the Scilly Isles boat to get in). But Major had a majority of 11 seats in 1992 and still lost his majority entirely, through by-elections and other attrition, over the course of that parliament. Now that the Conservatives have no-one to blame but themselves, will this be high tide for them, with erosion to follow again?

Comments

[cmcmck.livejournal.com]

I can only hope you're right.

This wasn't the ideal birthday present! :o(

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

It reminds me very much of '92, not least in way the polls (and expectations in general) were confounded. Osborne remarked that the stone plaque was Miliband's "Sheffield rally" moment. He was wrong in the sense that Miliband had none of Kinnock's premature triumphalism, but in another way I think he was right.

And, like Major's government, this one looks quite likely to be torn apart over Europe. You may get your interesting times yet.

[irontongue.livejournal.com]

I'm expecting interesting times.

Constitutional: people will notice that the SNP got 50+ seats with about 2 million votes while UKIP (ptui ptui ptui) got 1 seat with about 3 million votes.

Scottish: There will be another independence referendum.

European: There will be a vote about staying in the EU.