expert testimony

[calimac]

I want to thank all the baseball mavens who offered explanations for my query of yesterday.  They put in a lot of effort for a necessarily small return, and it seems to me that some of the replies illustrate the problems inherent in having experts respond to questions from the ignorant, in any field (computers most emphatically included).  Some of the comments tended to assume that I knew precisely what it was that I didn't know, and left me baffled as they then went on to explain in detail the parts that I did know.  The net result was a dozen explanations more than should have been necessary.

Now that I've gotten it (I think) straightened out, here, to let you triangulate what you said against what I needed to hear, is the single comment that would have answered all my questions and solved all my puzzlement at once:

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You wrote, "[The second baseman] steps onto the plate at second.  That puts out the runner who'd been heading from first to second."

That is incorrect.  That runner is not yet out, because, since the batter is now out, this runner is no longer forced to proceed to second to make room for him.  He is free to retreat to first.  The runner who is out when the fielder touches second is the runner between second and third.  When the ball is caught on the fly, and ONLY when it is caught on the fly, a baserunner who'd taken a lead down the basepath must return and tag the previous base - if he can get there before a fielder with the ball does - before proceeding on to the next base.  Since he's forced to do so, the fielder tagging the base first puts that runner out.

At this point, the second baseman and first baseman can start chasing down the first-to-second runner on the basepath.  An unassisted triple play will occur on the rare occasions that he's close enough to second for that baseman to catch him.  More often the runner will be closer to first, which he'd had to go back and tag anyway (see above) and since, as you noted in another context, he can see the second baseman with the ball, so he may try to beat the throw back to first.

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Is that correct?  And, more importantly, does the wording and specific content help you see why other explanations puzzled me?

Comments

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

That's correct, and I'm glad it worked for you. I tried my best with my explanation as well.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

Your explanation, longer than some and coming after others, helped more than some of the short early ones. What I needed first was to have the misapprehension in my item #2 clearly and explicitly corrected, because without that, anything else I was told wouldn't fit into my erroneous picture and would just confuse me.

[k6rfm.livejournal.com]

Now that you understand the tag up after a fly ball being caught bit, take a look at Randy Velarde's unassisted triple from 2000: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZIbMFVNnZI -- it's amazing because of how little Velarde actually has to move. It wasn't in the compilation, probably because there's so little to see. Runners on first and second, Velarde is playing just a couple steps first base side of second. Runners are sent on the pitch, batter hits a line drive to Velarde who catches it, batter out. The runner from first is just arriving at Velarde's spot, he just sticks out the glove and tags the runner from first out. The runner from second is pretty much at third by now, so all Velarde has to do is step on second base, and the runner from second is forced out (by the tag-up rule.) Best of all, it was accomplished against the Yankees.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

So, the runner wouldn't have to tag up on the previous base (in this case 2nd) if he could get to the next base (in this case, 3rd) before the fielder steps on 2nd? He'd have been safe on 3rd if he'd gotten there first? Otherwise there'd have been no point in trying to get to 3rd without returning to 2nd first at all, it would seem.

[k6rfm.livejournal.com]

No, because the batted ball was caught on the fly, all runners have to touch the base they were last on before advancing. Being on a base that's not the one they were last on doesn't help them. They could even have reached home -- they wouldn't score a run in that case because they did not legally advance. The reason the runners left second for third, and first for second, is that the manager told them to start running as soon as the pitch was thrown. (In the Velarde clip, you hear the announcer saying "runners are going", since the TV camera is focusing on the pitcher and batter, TV viewers wouldn't otherwise know.)

The reason that the manager might do that is because it usually helps or at least doesn't hurt, especially if the manager trusts the batter to be able to at least reach out and foul off the pitch if he can't hit it fair. For example, if the batter hits the ball on the ground (not caught on the fly) the runners don't have to tag up and will usually get at least one base further on than if they had waited until the ball hit the ground If the ball is caught on the fly, but in the outfield, the runners often have time to get back and tag, no harm done. If a foul ball is hit, everybody gets to go back free. If the ball is hit high up and there's clearly a good chance the infielders can catch it on the fly, the runners can turn around and get back before the infielders can catch the ball and get it to the base they left from.

The reason this "tag up" rule exists is otherwise it would be way too easy to score on a high fly ball -- the runners could run like crazy as long as the ball is in the air, which can be a long time. With the tag up rule, the runners have to get back and tag and can then try to advance, but the defense gets a chance to tag them out.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the rule clarification, but the rest is a good example of explaining what I do already understand but not what I don't. I understand why the runners edge down first (the ball might not get caught, and then they'd be a few steps ahead), and I could figure out the reason for the tag-up rule (and thanks for confirming it).

What I can't figure out is why, in the example you give, "The runner from second is pretty much at third by now," if he'd have had to go back to second before proceeding to third, in order to be safe. (I'm taking your word for it: he's not seen in the video at all. I note also that the tv announcer never explains why the fielder's stepping on the base makes an out, or who is put out by it, which is exactly what would have confused me if I'd seen this before I got all these explanations.)

[k6rfm.livejournal.com]

Why did the runner at second take off and run all the way to third? Most of the time, he would have been safe at third. The only case where the runner at second can't go to third without re-tagging second is a batted ball caught on the fly. The runner on second is really hoping for a ground ball. As long as the ball hits the ground before being caught, he does not have to re-tag second; he can take third easily; depending on the timing, he may even run home and score a run. If the ball is hit on the fly into the outfield, he will have time to run back to second before the outfielder catches it and gets in back in. Since most batted balls are either on the ground in the infield or fly balls into the outfield, it's only the rare case where the ball is caught by an infielder on the fly, without being up in the air long enough to get back, that he's out.

The case in the Velarde video is really rare. (Which is why we are still watching and talking about it 14 years later.)

The "normal" way for the Velarde play to end up is Velarde would not have been able to catch the ball coming at him, it would have hit the ground in short right-center field. Once the batted ball hits the ground, the runners are free to have advanced without tagging their base. Since the runners had left early, the runner from second would have scored before the outfielder got the ball, and the runner from first would have at least gotten to third, or maybe even scored if he was a fast runner.

(We are dangerously close to talking about the Infield Fly Rule.)

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

You're answering the question, "Why did he take off towards third in the first place?" I already know the answer to tht question. But you had said ""The runner from second is pretty much at third by now,"" "now" being after the ball was caught. Why would he keep going, after he no longer legally can?

[k6rfm.livejournal.com]

Since he left second going full speed as soon as the pitch was made, he's already near third by the time the catch is made. He doesn't know that leaving second was a bad idea until Velarde catches that line drive. Even if he turns around and sprints back to second once he sees the catch made, he can't get here before Velarde does.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

But if he's running full speed, wouldn't this also apply in the cases of the ball being caught in the outfield, or a pop fly? How would they know to turn around then, if they're so busy running and not watching the ball?

But considering how often a ball is caught without hitting the ground, how often do the runners start that early, and isn't it tremendously risky for them to do so? You kind of imply that the batter has some control over how he hits the ball, but how much does he have, other than in deciding to bunt?

[k6rfm.livejournal.com]

It's not that the runners aren't watching the ball, it's whether they have any time to do anything about it. With a fly ball, they have more time -- the time the ball stays up in the air before being caught, plus the time for the throw to reach the base So as soon as they see the ball hit in the air, they turn around and head back. In the Velarde play it's a line drive so the ball is in the air a very short time.

At least some batters are thought to be able to control their swing to make a ground ball more likely, or just have a tendency to hit ground balls because of the nature of their swings. It also seems to be possible for some batters to pick their pitch. If the pitch is low they try to hit it, that's likely to be a ground ball because they will be hitting on top of the ball. If the pitch is high, they just poke at the ball and send it foul. There are also pitchers who are considered "ground ball pitchers" -- stats are kept on ground balls vs. fly balls for every pitcher. So the manager would take all that into consideration before telling the runners to go.

There's also a risk if the runners don't take off; if there's an infield ground ball (very common even if the batter's not trying for it), then they can be forced out (the much more common assisted double or triple play.) So the manager is taking the risk of the very rare unassisted triple play in order to stay out of the more common assisted version.

Not sure how to answer "how often do the runners start early." It's certainly not rare, and it works to get the runners advanced a lot more often than it results in an unassisted triple play.

[vgqn.livejournal.com]

One of the things I like about tutoring one-on-one or in groups (vs teaching large groups) is the opportunity to discern precisely where the point of confusion is before proceeding. Because, as you say, all the explanation in the world doesn't help if the learner has one crucial assumption wrong.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

I would have liked to have had you - you in particular - there to peer into my head the time that I took a composting class from the city of San Jose. The more it went on, the less I understood.

[vgqn.livejournal.com]

I took a composting class once just so that I could buy one of the discounted bins. And I sat there thinking, "I could explain this SO much better!" Not that I was any expert in compost, but that poor fellow was a dreadful teacher. I've since learned that the Master Composter program requires that all graduates teach at least one composting class. They do know about this requirement when they sign up for it, but they may or may not know if they will be any good at doing it.

If you still have questions and are interested, I would happy to try to clear up any confusion.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

It was a long time ago, I gave up on the composting (which would be hard to do in our newer home anyway, and I don't remember the details. It's just that I suddenly remembered it as a perfect example of unhelpful teaching.