Slave states, begone!
Nov. 10th, 2004 09:07 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
calimacFor all those who've been reading all about how the slave states voted for Bush and the free states for Kerry, and who've been subjected to wishful thinking about how the US should have let them "go" (actually they weren't going anywhere, they were staying right where they were, which is why Lincoln didn't go along with the idea: "We cannot physically separate," he pointed out) ...
Time for a little thought experiment.
What if the eleven slave states that declared for secession in 1860-61 had made good on their claim and had not been readmitted to the Union? And nothing else had changed? What effect would this have had on subsequent electoral votes for President?
NOTE 1. The eleven states, and not all the slave states, because the rest refused to secede, West Virginia even going to the trouble of seceding from Virginia so as to remain in the Union.
NOTE 2. Obviously it would be impossible for nothing else to have changed. For one thing, a number of presidential candidates have come from those states. (Starting with Woodrow Wilson, who spent the Civil War as a boy in Georgia.) And once you change one thing, changes may cascade. This is a thought experiment, nothing more.
With a little help from that election database site and Excel, here's the elections that would have come out differently:
1884. Actual result: Cleveland (D) 219, Blaine (R) 182. Notional result: Blaine 182, Cleveland 112.
1892. Actual result: Cleveland (D) 277, Harrison (R) 145, Weaver (Populist) 22. Notional result: Cleveland 165, Harrison 145, Weaver 22, and the election is thrown into the House. There we find (again subtracting the ex-Confederates) that the Democrats control 19 delegations, the Republicans 12, and the Populists 2, so Cleveland is presumably elected. However, there are 47 Republican Senators and only 17 Democrats (plus 2 Populists), so Reid (R), not Stevenson (D), becomes Vice President. Cleveland is operated on for cancer during his term, but survives.
1916. Actual result: Wilson (D) 277, Hughes (R) 254. Notional result: Hughes 254, Wilson 151. What effect this would have on US involvement in WW1, I have no idea.
Thus, of the four actual Democratic candidates elected between the Civil War and FDR, only one (Wilson in 1912) gets a clean victory this way, and that was because of the Republican split that year. Going on:
1976. Actual result: Carter (D) 297, Ford (R) 240. Notional result: Ford 228, Carter 179. The last time the South would decisively swing that way.
2000. Actual result: Bush (R) 271, Gore (D) 266. Notional result: Gore 266, Bush 124. I have to admit that looks good.
2004. Actual result: Bush (R) 286, Kerry (D) 252. Notional result: Kerry 252, Bush 133. That looks pretty good too.
What if we could retroactively disappear the eleven states before the Civil War?
1800. This election was thrown into the House because before 1804 there was no differential between Presidential and Vice-Presidential electoral votes. The Democrat-Republicans won but someone forgot to deliberately throw away a vote or two for the VP candidate, Aaron Burr, who saw his main chance and refused to yield. However, in the real world the count was Jefferson-Burr (DR) 73, Adams-Pinckney (Fed) 65 (minus one for Pinckney because the Federalists did remember how the electoral vote worked). Notional result: Adams-Pinckney 61, Jefferson-Burr 29.
1812. Actual result: Madison (DR) 128, Clinton (Fed-Fusion) 89. Notional result: Clinton 89, Madison 58. So much for the War of 1812, then.
1824. Actual result: Jackson 99, Adams 84, Crawford 41, Clay 37, and the election was thrown into the House between Jackson, Adams, and Crawford, and Adams was picked. Notional result: Adams 82, Jackson 51, Clay 37, Crawford 8, and the election is thrown into the House again, but this time between Jackson, Adams, and Clay. Crawford's support in the House as well as in the electoral vote was almost all in the South, so he's out of the picture as kingmaker; and as Clay in real life threw his support to Adams, we can presume he'd have done the same notionally, and Adams would again have been elected.
1856. Actual result: Buchanan (D) 174, Fremont (R) 114, Fillmore (Am-Whig) 8. Notional result: Fremont 114, Buchanan 86, Fillmore 8, but since the political situation would be totally altered without the South, this is meaningless except to point out that half of Buchanan's actual support came from states that would secede. No wonder he was reluctant to force the South.
Time for a little thought experiment.
What if the eleven slave states that declared for secession in 1860-61 had made good on their claim and had not been readmitted to the Union? And nothing else had changed? What effect would this have had on subsequent electoral votes for President?
NOTE 1. The eleven states, and not all the slave states, because the rest refused to secede, West Virginia even going to the trouble of seceding from Virginia so as to remain in the Union.
NOTE 2. Obviously it would be impossible for nothing else to have changed. For one thing, a number of presidential candidates have come from those states. (Starting with Woodrow Wilson, who spent the Civil War as a boy in Georgia.) And once you change one thing, changes may cascade. This is a thought experiment, nothing more.
With a little help from that election database site and Excel, here's the elections that would have come out differently:
1884. Actual result: Cleveland (D) 219, Blaine (R) 182. Notional result: Blaine 182, Cleveland 112.
1892. Actual result: Cleveland (D) 277, Harrison (R) 145, Weaver (Populist) 22. Notional result: Cleveland 165, Harrison 145, Weaver 22, and the election is thrown into the House. There we find (again subtracting the ex-Confederates) that the Democrats control 19 delegations, the Republicans 12, and the Populists 2, so Cleveland is presumably elected. However, there are 47 Republican Senators and only 17 Democrats (plus 2 Populists), so Reid (R), not Stevenson (D), becomes Vice President. Cleveland is operated on for cancer during his term, but survives.
1916. Actual result: Wilson (D) 277, Hughes (R) 254. Notional result: Hughes 254, Wilson 151. What effect this would have on US involvement in WW1, I have no idea.
Thus, of the four actual Democratic candidates elected between the Civil War and FDR, only one (Wilson in 1912) gets a clean victory this way, and that was because of the Republican split that year. Going on:
1976. Actual result: Carter (D) 297, Ford (R) 240. Notional result: Ford 228, Carter 179. The last time the South would decisively swing that way.
2000. Actual result: Bush (R) 271, Gore (D) 266. Notional result: Gore 266, Bush 124. I have to admit that looks good.
2004. Actual result: Bush (R) 286, Kerry (D) 252. Notional result: Kerry 252, Bush 133. That looks pretty good too.
What if we could retroactively disappear the eleven states before the Civil War?
1800. This election was thrown into the House because before 1804 there was no differential between Presidential and Vice-Presidential electoral votes. The Democrat-Republicans won but someone forgot to deliberately throw away a vote or two for the VP candidate, Aaron Burr, who saw his main chance and refused to yield. However, in the real world the count was Jefferson-Burr (DR) 73, Adams-Pinckney (Fed) 65 (minus one for Pinckney because the Federalists did remember how the electoral vote worked). Notional result: Adams-Pinckney 61, Jefferson-Burr 29.
1812. Actual result: Madison (DR) 128, Clinton (Fed-Fusion) 89. Notional result: Clinton 89, Madison 58. So much for the War of 1812, then.
1824. Actual result: Jackson 99, Adams 84, Crawford 41, Clay 37, and the election was thrown into the House between Jackson, Adams, and Crawford, and Adams was picked. Notional result: Adams 82, Jackson 51, Clay 37, Crawford 8, and the election is thrown into the House again, but this time between Jackson, Adams, and Clay. Crawford's support in the House as well as in the electoral vote was almost all in the South, so he's out of the picture as kingmaker; and as Clay in real life threw his support to Adams, we can presume he'd have done the same notionally, and Adams would again have been elected.
1856. Actual result: Buchanan (D) 174, Fremont (R) 114, Fillmore (Am-Whig) 8. Notional result: Fremont 114, Buchanan 86, Fillmore 8, but since the political situation would be totally altered without the South, this is meaningless except to point out that half of Buchanan's actual support came from states that would secede. No wonder he was reluctant to force the South.
