comment no. C

[calimac]

jpmassar has some comments on the Canadian election. Here's some more.

a) This is the Conservative Party's first absolute majority since its predecessor, the so-called Progressive Conservatives, in the Mulroney days in the 80s. It's also only the third time in federal history that the Conservatives under any label have been the largest party for as many as three elections in a row.

b) While the national trend of seats away from the Liberals and towards the Conservatives and NDP appeared in the Atlantic and Western provinces, it wasn't dramatic there. The famous volatility of Canadian politics expressed itself entirely in Ontario, where the Conservatives gained a net 22 out of the total 106 seats, and were thus responsible for tipping it over into a majority, and in Quebec, where the Conservatives actually lost seats, but the Bloc was virtually demolished in favor of the NDP, which now has 3/4 of the province's seats after having previously won only two there in its entire history. Once before, a party born in Western Canada found the bulk of its support transferred to Quebec; this was Social Credit, which has not been heard of in twenty years.

c) NDP becoming the official opposition, which it never has been before, may aid the Conservatives in positioning themselves as the only "moderate" choice (not that today's Conservatives are as moderate as their predecessors), which would not be good for the NDP's cause. On the other hand, if the NDP are seen as the only alternative to the Conservatives, they'll be the ones to pick up the pieces when the Conservatives inevitably fall. On the third hand, exposure to power or even Official Opposition could cause the inexperienced NDP to implode; it's done so on the provincial level before. And don't count the Liberals out: they've been nearly wiped out before (1958 and 1984) and have come back; they're arrogant and Canadians think humiliation does them good, but they're also less incompetent.

Comments

[shelleybear.livejournal.com]

When faced with the possibility of the N.D.P. as a potential leadership party, the Canadian people will flock back to the liberals.
They are too chicken shit scared to allow change.
I lived there for 14 years.