my ghod, I did it: I predicted the election

I'd totally forgotten this, but I've been going through my posts of the last year in preparation for writing a year-end post, and found this: On January 31st, I predicted that, given a straight fight between Trump and Clinton, Trump would be elected President.

Let me repeat that: On January 31st, 2016, I predicted that Trump would be elected President.

Here's the relevant part of what I wrote:

The article's second argument is that "there are simply not enough struggling, resentful, xenophobic white people in the US to constitute a national majority sufficient to win a presidential election." The flaw in that reasoning is that, if Trump wins the nomination, he won't need merely that category. Unless the party splits over him, and I wouldn't count on it doing so, other Republicans will have nowhere else to go. Trump has high negatives, yes, but so does Clinton (if she's the Democratic nominee), and she doesn't have the enthusiasm of her party's base. Enthusiasm is what means turnout, and - as the difference between 2008 and 2010 amply shows - between two strong bases, it's turnout that wins elections. Combine that with the prospect of a sluggish economy, and in a straight fight between Clinton and Trump, it'd be a wonder if Trump didn't win.

Then I wrote, "Never say that a strong candidate can't win," with a link to a collection of quotes from as late as the day before the 2008 election saying that Obama can't, or won't, win.

My argument related to turnout, and I think it's clear that lack of turnout, relative to Trump's, was the massive problem that weighed down Clinton's boat to the extent that relatively minor problems, like the whole e-mail shebang, Russian hackers and James Comey and all, were capable of sinking it.

the annual year-end post

Here's the municipalities I've stayed in away from home over the course of the year:

Romulus, MI
Ashland, OR
Camarillo, CA (2)
San Antonio, TX
Innisfail, Alberta
Banff, Alberta
Eureka, CA
Medford, OR
Eugene, OR
Glendora, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Hillingdon, England
Bristol, England
Aberdare, Wales

The two trips out of the US were both totally unplanned as of the beginning of the year. The others were all at least penciled in as possibilities. Only the first trip, to Michigan, got me into other jurisdictions than the ones I stayed in: Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario. Apart from the one-afternoon mini-Potlatch in San Jose, I got to just one public convention, Mythcon in San Antonio: that's the new normal for me. But this year I also got to see Shakespeare performed in England as well as in Oregon, fly to LA for one quick overnight trip just to see an opera, hear 14 string quartet concerts in one week in Alberta, and walk among the seagulls on Anacapa Island (that's why I was staying in Camarillo, twice because the first trip I was scheduled for was cancelled due to inclement weather).

I wrote and published 27 concert reviews and other musical articles for my two reviewing venues, and also published one book review, in Mythlore. And I co-edited Volume 13 of Tolkien Studies, which has just been published, as well as writing various nuggets of the annual "Year's Work in Tolkien Studies" therein.