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advice for autocrats
Jan. 29th, 2011 01:34 pmI have some advice for autocratic dictators facing a popular uprising. You will be tempted to try to defuse the revolution by offering concessions, allowing some of the reforms which you'd been brushing off from previous, less violent protests by political opponents.
Don't do it. It's too late for that.
Had you allowed some of the reforms back when they were merely being pushed vocally, you might have placated the opposition and remained securely in power, at least for a foreseeable future. But once your people have taken to rioting in the streets and throwing rocks, they're no longer in a mood to be placated. Instead, they will only take your moving now to a compromise position as a sign of your weakness. It will only make them believe - and correctly, too - that the once immovable is now frightened and panicking, and they will push all the harder. Then you'll capitulate more in response, and once you enter that spiral, you're doomed.
Instead, you have a hard choice to make. You need to look honestly at your police strengths and the depths of the rebellion, and decide whether you have the power to crush it, completely.
If you don't, flee - now, while your fearful head is on (to borrow a phrase). Grab all the money and portable valuables you can, and find a country to give you asylum. There you can live out your years in reasonable comfort, as Idi Amin did. Make an honest decision and implement it. If you think you can crush the rebellion but can't, or if you wait too long to go, your fate could be that of Ceauşescu.
If you can crush the rebellion, be ruthless. You're not a dictator for nothing. Squash it utterly and re-establish autocratic law and order. Then, and only then, with a return to the status quo ante, you can afford to learn from your experience and grant mild reforms that will address the protesters' original concerns while still leaving you in power. Then you'll be seen as both strong and flexible, and you can satisfy people's concerns without inducing them to try again to overthrow you.
I doubt any dictators would follow this advice, almost as much as I doubt they'd read this blog in the first place. Nor do I really want them to, of course. But from their perspective, this is what they should do.
Don't do it. It's too late for that.
Had you allowed some of the reforms back when they were merely being pushed vocally, you might have placated the opposition and remained securely in power, at least for a foreseeable future. But once your people have taken to rioting in the streets and throwing rocks, they're no longer in a mood to be placated. Instead, they will only take your moving now to a compromise position as a sign of your weakness. It will only make them believe - and correctly, too - that the once immovable is now frightened and panicking, and they will push all the harder. Then you'll capitulate more in response, and once you enter that spiral, you're doomed.
Instead, you have a hard choice to make. You need to look honestly at your police strengths and the depths of the rebellion, and decide whether you have the power to crush it, completely.
If you don't, flee - now, while your fearful head is on (to borrow a phrase). Grab all the money and portable valuables you can, and find a country to give you asylum. There you can live out your years in reasonable comfort, as Idi Amin did. Make an honest decision and implement it. If you think you can crush the rebellion but can't, or if you wait too long to go, your fate could be that of Ceauşescu.
If you can crush the rebellion, be ruthless. You're not a dictator for nothing. Squash it utterly and re-establish autocratic law and order. Then, and only then, with a return to the status quo ante, you can afford to learn from your experience and grant mild reforms that will address the protesters' original concerns while still leaving you in power. Then you'll be seen as both strong and flexible, and you can satisfy people's concerns without inducing them to try again to overthrow you.
I doubt any dictators would follow this advice, almost as much as I doubt they'd read this blog in the first place. Nor do I really want them to, of course. But from their perspective, this is what they should do.
