now what?

[calimac]

What's really unclear to me, as it was with the invasion of Iraq, is: what's the endgame here? What are we trying to accomplish, and what will constitute accomplishing it?

It's clear enough that all these societal shutdowns are intended, not to stop the virus, because it's already embedded too much in the population to make that feasible, but to slow the growth of infections enough to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed when people start getting sick. But how long do we keep having to do this? Until everyone's exposed to the virus, despite our attempts to keep them away? So ... the better we are at this, the longer we'll have to keep doing it?

And how long will that be? Months, I'd think. Most arts groups I follow started with cancellations through mid or late March and then extended it to the end of April, with no promise it would stop there. One federal health official suggested a complete lockdown of society for two weeks, but that only makes sense if we assume that everyone's already infected and we're just waiting to see who gets sick, and I doubt that's the case.

Maybe the virus will slow down and get sluggish during the summer, as the flu usually does, and people can peek their heads over the parapets and go back to doing a few normal things. But if that's all that happens, it will come roaring back in the fall, probably worse than ever, which is what the 1918-19 pandemic did. And we'll have to go through the whole weary round again, until a vaccine is ready the next year. And will that clamp it down? And what if acquired immunity is only temporary, as it usually is for similar viruses? The 1918-19 pandemic ended when the virus mutated away from more deadly strains (because they killed their hosts too efficiently), but this virus, while deadly, isn't that deadly, so it's not under so much evolutionary pressure.

In the meanwhile, what about commerce? Some cities are shutting down restaurants. Despite one news report saying California is doing it too, it isn't: the governor says food service remains vital. Of course that may change at any moment, as so many other declarations have. I think I read that some European countries are closing all commercial outlets except groceries, pharmacies, and banks. That may be feasible for a short period, a couple weeks maybe, but after that too many urgent needs of daily life that can't be handled by delivery or mail-order will pile up; I won't name any, because you can too.

Comments

[lydy]

As I understand it, we're buying time. A vaccine will probably be available in a year to 18 months. The health care profession will get better at treating the disease. Meantime, we're trying to reduce the strain on the system so that people don't die while we figure that shit out. If what needs to happen is that everybody needs to get the virus (for generous but not absolute values of everybody) it still makes sense to have it happen a little at a time. A steady stream of sick people is much more manageable than a sudden spike. But, mostly, we're trying to buy time because there is so much we don't know. The reason there isn't an endgame is because we don't know enough, yet. I mean, I suppose the endgame might be 2% of the world population dies. I do hope that's not it. But at the moment, we're trying to buy time.

[sartorias]

The something I suspect is people RECOVERING from the virus. If they do, I expect the general population to shrug and say, oh, it's just another flu/a [insert pejorative here] hoax, etc. and go back to As You Were.

If people start dying in huge numbers, then we get infrastructure collapse, etc, etc. Huge cities are so very fragile.

[voidampersand]

The immediate goal is to prevent large numbers of people from dying now. When the virus spreads rapidly, the health care system is overwhelmed and thousands of people die. Social distancing is proven to reduce the death rate. At this point it is not possible to stop the virus. That is not a goal. But it is possible to dramatically reduce the death rate. It is without doubt an ethical imperative.

In the meantime, clinical trials are going on for anti-viral drugs, and trials are starting for vaccines. The ultimate goal is to keep as many people as possible alive until effective medications and vaccines are available. That does offer a hope of stopping the virus, or at least getting so it is no worse than the seasonal flu. Probably not this year, but in two years it is likely.