morning after

I didn't watch any of the Oscar telecast: I contented myself with checking up on news websites a couple of times in the evening as I worked on the computer, which is also how I've been following election returns for the past decade.

So, with that comparison, it's appropriate to think of Nate Silver and his attempt to wade into Oscar predicting, a field with no reliable polling and no release of voting figures. He based his predictions entirely on the results of other movie awards, as a substitute for polling.

So far this morning I haven't seen any post-mortems on his predictions - maybe it's still too early in the morning - but, heck, here's his original article. Of the six categories he forecast, he got four of them right, and the two that he didn't were the ones that he acknowledged his data was insufficient for a reliable prediction on, and they still went to high-probability candidates.

So Silver has struck again, even in this unlikely field for election prediction.

My own comments on the results would be virtually nil, as there's no category I've seen more than 2 of the nominees in, except for Best Picture where I've seen 3. I thought they were all pretty good movies, but that speaks more to my ability to select the movies that I'd like than to the Academy's ability to select the movies that I'd like.

oboe oh no

But the most moving and disturbing news of the weekend was the collapse of San Francisco Symphony principal oboeist William Bennett from a stroke during a concert, and while playing the solo part of Richard Strauss's oboe concerto, yet. This article from the Mercury News reads a little more full than the SF Chronicle's, except that the latter says it took 20 minutes for the paramedics to arrive. That seems awfully long in the circumstances and considering the location. Time is everything in a stroke.

Whether Bennett will recover remains to be seen. But the incident itself, besides raising concern for his health, and for being a horrible embarrassment, is a musical tragedy, because Bennett is one of SFS's finest players. I would name three in the current lineup whom I've heard perform particularly outstanding in-orchestra solos, and Bennett is one. (The others are principal flutist Tim Day and associate principal horn Nicole Cash.) If he must depart, it would be a major loss.

(One point about the Merc article, where it tells you that a concerto is "a virtuoso piece where the soloist stands alone in front of the orchestra." I'm amused that it was thought necessary to explain this.)